Envy and emulation

Not all the news is good. The economy shrank in the final quarter of 2011; and even if first quarter figures do not reveal Germany itself to be in recession, its economy will continue to suffer the drag of recession elsewhere in the euro area and a slowdown in developing countries. But just 1% growth is enough to create jobs, according to Bert Rürup, a former chairman of the government’s council of economic “wise men”. In a book written with a journalist, Dirk Heilmann, “Fat Years: Why Germany has a Brilliant Future”, he giddily predicts that by 2030 Germany will become the world’s richest large country in terms of income per head.

Such success does not bring universal admiration. Germany is hated in parts of Europe for demanding growth-crushing austerity as the price for supporting the euro. Greek tabloids have depicted Angela Merkel, the chancellor, in Nazi uniform. A current account surplus larger than China’s as a share of GDP is a badge of pride for many Germans (see chart 2). But economists such as Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform (CER) accuse them of “fetishising exports” while low wage growth depresses their demand for goods from other countries. When in 2010 Christine Lagarde, then France’s finance minister and now head of the International Monetary Fund, questioned whether Germany’s export-dependent model was “sustainable” she spoke for many.

Yet there is also a great deal of admiration. Spain’s education minister is looking into Germany’s “dual system” of vocational training, which combines classroom instruction with work experience. John Cridland, director of the Confederation of British Industry, wants Britain “to have its own version of the German Mittelstand ”, ie, firms like Beckhoff. Nicolas Sarkozy began his campaign for re-election as France’s president sounding as if he would gladly swallow the model whole. Germany prioritised “jobs, jobs, jobs,” he said. “If it worked for them, why wouldn’t it work for us?”

But is the model copiable? After a few days in East Westphalia-Lippe (now marketing itself to the world as OWL) you wonder. Beckhoff and its peers have global ambitions but their business culture has deep provincial roots. They look back as much as forward. “We have existed since 1825 and have been doing the same thing since then,” says Dieter Brand, chairman of the Sparkasse, or savings bank, in Bielefeld, the region’s biggest town. In some senses the same is true of his corporate customers. Germany may have reformed and rearticulated its model in recent years. But the underlying skeleton is ancient, and perhaps inimitable.

Two decades ago, the country seemed distinctly arthritic. The euphoria of unification in 1990 was followed by the sharpest recession since the second world war. Some 500,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. Business was menaced by an overvalued D-mark, nimble Asian competitors and unification’s huge costs. The economy had become rigid and uncompetitive, moaned entrepreneurs. The then-president, Roman Herzog, captured the zeitgeist in 1997 when he spoke of “the loss of economic dynamism, the torpor of society, an unbelievable mental depression”. Reformers clamoured for elements of the German model, like vocational training and centralised wage bargaining, to be scrapped.