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RUSSIAN KRASNOYARSK KRAI ASSIGNED ‘BB+/RUAA+’ RATINGS; OUTLOOK STABLE

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services assigned its ‘BB+’ global scale and ‘ruAA+’ Russia national scale ratings to Krasnoyarsk Krai. The outlook is stable. The krai is the second-largest region in the Russian Federation (foreign currency BBB+/Stable/A-2; local currency A-/Stable/A-2; Russia national scale ‘ruAAA’), and is located in Eastern Siberia.

The ratings are constrained by low budget predictability and flexibility due to high industrial and taxpayer concentration, pressure on costs and infrastructure needs in such a remote location, and federal regulation of the main budget parameters.

The krai’s strong economy supports the ratings by generating high revenue growth. Anticipated massive investment and the commitment to keep the debt burden low also strengthen the krai’s creditworthiness.

Industry accounts for 60.5% of the krai’s gross regional product (GRP), dominated by metal production (nickel, aluminum, copper, and cobalt), which accounts for about 2.6% of total national exports. Concentration of taxpayers in the krai is high: OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (BBB-/Stable/-; Russia national scale ‘ruAA+’) and its subsidiaries brought on average about 40% of tax revenues to the krai’s budget in 2005-2007. The krai’s revenues grew strongly during this period, especially in 2007, due to favorable markets. However, they remain exposed to volatile commodity prices and to Norilsk’s policy, which has been favorable for krai so far.

Economic growth in the krai was moderate – 4.7% on average in 2004-2007 – and is likely to remain at this level in the next few years before an anticipated increase from the implementation of some large planned projects for oil and gas extraction, aluminum and precious metals processing, and construction of energy generating facilities and transport networks. The implementation of these projects depends on massive federal and private investment, and the first results should begin to show in 2010-2011. These projects should enlarge the krai’s taxpayer base and GRP structure in the longer term.

Russian Krasnoyarsk Krai Assigned ‘BB+/ruAA+’ Ratings; Outlook Stable

The krai’s remote location and harsh climate puts higher pressure on costs, and drives the need to improve transportation and utility networks. This need is strong because a comparatively small share of capital expenditures in the past five years were spent on these improvements. Moreover, as with most Russian peers, federal controls over the fundamental parameters of revenues and expenditures restrict the krai’s financial predictability and flexibility.

The krai’s revenues posted fast growth during the past five years. We expect them to exceed Russian ruble (RUR) 100 billion (2.8 billion) in 2007, which is more than 5.5x the 2002 level. Budgetary performance has improved during this period, to an impressive 21.5% surplus in 2007 from a 0.8% operating deficit. Assuming planned public sector salary growth and capital injections to infrastructure, we expect operating balances of about 10%-12% of operating revenues, and deficits after capital expenditures of about 7% of total revenues on average in 2008-2010.

The krai plans to finance capital programs with borrowings. This could bring direct debt to a moderate 25% of operating revenues by 2010. The krai’s financial management is prudent and sophisticated compared with that of peers. We expect that this will enable the management to implement its strong commitment to control budget balances and maintain a low debt burden in the medium term.