Правовой режим деятельности иностранных инвесторов и использования полученной от инвестиций прибыли не может быть менее благоприятным, чем правовой режим деятельности и использования полученной от инвестиций прибыли, предоставленный российским инвесторам.
Изъятия ограничительного характера для иностранных инвесторов могут быть установлены федеральными законами только в той мере, в какой это необходимо в целях защиты основ конституционного строя, нравственности, здоровья, прав и законных интересов других лиц, обеспечения обороны страны и безопасности государства.
Изъятия стимулирующего характера в виде льгот для иностранных инвесторов могут быть установлены в интересах социально-экономического развития РФ.
Филиал иностранного юридического лица, созданный на территории РФ, выполняет часть функций или все функции, включая функции представительства, от имени создавшего его иностранного юридического лица при условии, что цели ее создания и деятельность имеют коммерческий характер, и она несет непосредственную имущественную ответственность по принятым ею в связи с ведением указанной деятельности на территории РФ обязательствам.
Российская коммерческая организаций получает статус коммерческой организации с иностранными инвестициями со дня вхождения в состав ее участников иностранного капитала.
Основными конкурентами России в привлечении иностранных инвестиций являются некоторые бывшие социалистические страны Европы, особенно Польша, Чехия и Венгрия, а также такие развивающиеся страны с достаточно емким внутренним рынком, как Бразилия, Мексика и Аргентина. Кроме того, одним из лидеров в привлечении иностранных инвестиций является Китай с его огромным рынком и динамично развивающейся экономикой.
Comprehension Questions
1. What is the difference between a nominal and real exchange rate?
2. Why is the forecasting of forex rates moves so difficult?
3. What approaches in forex forecasting yield good results?
4. What events drive financial markets nowadays?
5. What market rumours should be taken into account?
6. Why do stable prices facilitate economic growth?
7. How can central banks influence financial markets?
8. What is the customer guided by in taking forex decisions?
Exercises
Ex. 1. Put questions to the underlined words.
Ex. 2. Point out verbal constructions and state their syntactical function in the sentence.
Ex. 3. Read and translate the text.
Ex. 4. Translate this dialogue from English into Russian in writing and from Russian into English orally.
Dialogue
Client: What is the meaning of real exchange fate?
Broker: Inflation changes nominal exchange rate. If British inflation has been 10 percent over the past year, while German inflation has been 0 percent, the pound sterling devalues against the mark by 10 percent.
Client: But the nominal rate does not reflect this change. Does it?
Broker: No it doesn't. We do not sell it. But it takes 10 percent more pounds to buy a mark, 10 percent more pounds to buy a coat in England because of 10 percent inflation there.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ASSUMPTIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
| Terms
|
| |
| Technical Analysis
| — технический анализ рыночной конъюнктуры. Система методов анализа тенденций движения цен, их разброса и устойчивости, объема операций и других характеристик
| |
| Technical analyst, technician
| — специалист по техническому анализу
| |
| technical conditions (of a market)
| — специфические рыночные факторы спроса и предложения, влияющие на конъюнктуру
| |
| technical decline (rally)
| — ухудшение конъюнктуры под влиянием внутренних факторов (превышение предложения над спросом), а не внешних
| |
| technical analysis tool
| — инструмент (метод) технического анализа
| |
| financial instrument
| - финансовый актив или обязательство, являющееся объектом торговли на рынке (ценные бумаги, депозиты, контракты и т.д.)
| |
| instrument of loan
| — залоговый инструмент
| |
| instrument of payment
| — средство платежа
| |
| instrument of transfer
| — трансфертный документ
| |
| chart
| — график
| |
| chartist
| - специалист по прогнозированию биржевой конъюнктуры
| |
| chart pattern
| — фигура технического анализа
| |
| price pattern
| — график колебания цен
| |
| bull market
| - рынок «быков», период повышения фондовой конъюнктуры, от
которого выигрывают «быки»
| |
| bull
| — покупатель, играющий на повышение
| |
| bull position
| - позиция «быка», когда покупка ценных бумаг превышает их продажу
| |
| bullish pattern
| — график с повышением фондовой конъюнктуры
| |
| bear market
| — рынок «медведей», период понижения фондовой конъюнктуры
| |
| bear
| - торговец, играющий на понижение («медведь»)
| |
| bear closing
| — обратная покупка «медведями» акций, которые они продали до этого в надежде на снижение цен
| |
| market stages
| — циклы конъюнктуры рынка
| |
| sideways market
| - цикл с горизонтальным движением цен, которые изменяются в узких
пределах
| |
| trend
| — тренд, тенденция развития рынка или движения цены (курса)
| |
| to trend up
| — двигаться вверх
| |
| to trend down
| - двигаться вниз
| |
| Trendline
| 1) прямая линия на графике движения цены, отражающая основную
тенденцию
| |
| |
| 2) линия, соединяющая высшие или низшие точки движения цены (за некоторый период)
| |
| up trend
| — тренд повышения (цен)
| |
|
|
| |
| down trend
| - тренд понижения (цен)
|
| ranging market
| - узкий разброс цен
|
| no trend (congestion)
| - перегрузка, «пробка»
|
| to congest (to range)
| - вызывать горизонтальное движение цен
|
| low (point)
| — низкое значение(цены)
|
| high (point)
| — высокое значение (цены)
|
| pivot point
| - центр, опорная точка
|
| climax (peak)
| — наивысшая точка
|
| test
| — приближение цены к точке сопротивления или поддержки
|
| retest
| — повторное приближение цены к точке сопротивления (поддержки)
|
| close price
| — курс (цена) при закрытии торгов
|
| price limits
| — ценовые лимиты (уровни цен в течении рабочего дня на бирже)
|
| price pattern
| - фигура движения цены на графике
|
| reversal patterns
| - фигуры движения цен, указывающие на смену тенденции (восходящий/ нисходящий треугольник)
|
| price range
| - амплитуда колебаний цен (низкая/ высокая) за период
|
| resistance (level)
| — уровень сопротивления (приостановка подъема конъюнктуры)
|
| support (level)
| - уровень поддержки (приостановка падений конъюнктуры)
|
| break out (level)
| — «побег», нарушение устоявшегося движения цен
|
| correction
| - коррекция, обратное движение цены или индекса (обычно снижение), выправление (исправление отклонения) тенденции
|
| target price
| — плановая, ожидаемая цена
|
| upside
| — повышательное (движение цены)
|
| downside
| — понижательное (движение цены)
|
| accumulation
| - накопление, аккумуляция
|
| to accumulate
| — накапливать
|
| accumulation area
| — зона аккумуляции, движение цены в определенном коридоре в период накопления, за которым следует резкий подъем
|
| pullback
| — «откат»
|
| Market participants never individually agree about the price of a currency, but the overall consensus of the market produces the fair value for the currency. Market price movements are never in one direction for long. A currency may strengthen, then weaken and strengthen again. The technician's challenge is to determine the levels to which a currency will zig up running into selling pressure (resistance level) and the levels to which a currency will zag down running into buying interest (support level). The use of Technical Analysis (ТА) in forecasting time series data continues to grow in popularity, with much of the growth resulting from the increasing need for accurate and timely forecasts of diverse instruments in a global market place. The basic tenets of traditional Technical Analysis, measuring direction and speed of price movement remain little hanged, however.
| Vocabulary
i: tenet -принцип
e
| |
| |
| to estimate — оценивать, намечать
о: to grasp - понимать
i to predict — предсказывать
to pinpoint - определять точно
л assumption -предположение, допущение
| |
| The first concept to grasp is that technicians believe that all available information (historical data, forecasts and market expectations) is being acted on and is reflected in the price. Given market generated data (price, volume, open interest etc), technicians measure direction using a variety of methods. First, there is the trend, which shows the direction in which prices are moving, within different time frames-long term to intra-day. Second, there are chart patterns, which can pinpoint forecasts in both direction and magnitude. The patterns can be in the form of continuation or reversal and show clearly the breakout level and extension targets. Third, momentum studies can be used to gauge changes in trend and probable direction, as well as the timing of moves.
• History repeats
Technical analysis is based on human psychology which tends not to change. The assumption made is that the key to understanding the future lies in the past. Patterns exist. Patterns can estimate future direction. The theory here is that a trend in place is more likely to continue than reverse. People use ТА to identify patterns so as to ride the rising trends, until indicators show signs of a reversal.
• Price information is complete or markets discount everything
Anything that can affect the market price of a commodity — political rumours, changing economic conditions or even psychological perceptions, is already reflected in the market price. Price action according to Technical Analysts should reflect actual shifts in Supply and Demand. Example: Assume the price of gold is increasing. Economists may say that there is a plenty of gold supply and that prices should not be increasing. The market would say that we know there is plenty of gold supply, the price reflects this but demand for gold has increased and therefore prices should be increasing. The weaknesses of fundamental analysis as a rule are complemented by technical forecasting. The latter captures market sentiment, mood and expectations. But on the other hand history does not repeat itself exactly and patterns do not occur in exactly the same way. Circumstances may change and what has worked in the past will not always work in the future. Therefore any trading plan needs to be correctly implemented by using both aproaches: fundamental and technical. If both results are in agreement, the confidence in a forecast is greatly enhanced. Newcomers to the forecasting should observe some guidelines that may be of help. Basic framework of forecasting implies establishing outside markets contacts. Through dialogues the newcomer gains the market participants' rationale behind the forecast. Reading market documents helps to broaden perspective and makes it easier to single out key bullish and bearish fundamental factors. When new to the markets one should devote time to writing forecasts focusing his attention on the most important factors, identifying key points and patterns as they form. Step bv step the newcomer realises that markets sometimes behave irrationally. It is not easy to beat the markets because there are too many variables at work. But making market decisions and assuming responsibility the individual acquires experience in trading the market.
| Э:
reverse - поворот назад to ride trends - использовать тренды
au to discount — обесценивать
| |
| |
| e to affect — влиять
e perception — ощущение, восприятие
ai supply — предложение
cu demand - спрос
Э:
to occur - происходить, случаться
i to implement — претворять в жизнь, осуществлять
ае
| |
| |
| |
| э to complement -дополнять
э 'confidence —уверенность
о: to enhance - усиливать
ei
framework — каркас, структура
i: to beat smth. - обставить, побить
Э variable - переменная
| |
|
| |
|
| |
Comprehension Questions
1. Who produces the fair value of the currency?
2. Why do currency prices fluctuate?
3. What is the technician's challenge?
4. What are the basic principles of traditional Technical Analysis?
5. How does history repeat itself?
6. Why do markets discount everything?
7. What approaches in forecasting yield good results?
8. By what events are markets driven now?
9. What precede upcoming political and economic events?
10. What saying reflects this process?
11. In what way do central banks influence financial markets?
12. How are the weaknesses of fundamental analysis complemented?
13. What are the guidelines that newcomers to forecasting should observe?
Exercises
Ex.1. Learn the terms and verb collocations and make up 20 sentences with them.
to agree about the price to produce a fair value to strengthen (to weaken) to run into selling pressure (buying interest) to grow in popularity to be reflected in the price to reflect shifts in Supply, and Demand to gauge changes in trend to be based on psychology to work in the past to lie in the past to estimate future direction to identify patterns to ride the rising trends to show signs of a reversal to discount everything to capture market sentiment to implement a trading plan to use technical approaches to be in agreement with
Ex. 2. Put questions to the underlined words in the text and let your partner answer them.
Ex. 3. Select the subordinate clauses and state of what kind they are (object clause, attributive clause
adverbial modifier clause of time, place, cause, etc.)
Ex. 4. Read and translate the text.
Ex. 5. Draw up a planof the text and render it.
Comprehension Questions
1. Who produces the fair value of the currency?
2. Why do currency prices fluctuate?
3. What is the technician's challenge?
4. What are the basic principles of traditional Technical Analysis?
5. How does history repeat itself?
6. Why do markets discount everything?
7. What approaches in forecasting yield good results?
8. By what events are markets driven now?
9. What precede upcoming political and economic events?
10. What saying reflects this process?
11. In what way do central banks influence financial markets?
12. How are the weaknesses of fundamental analysis complemented?
13. What are the guidelines that newcomers to forecasting should observe?
Exercises
Ex.1. Learn the terms and verb collocations and make up 20 sentences with them.
to agree about the price to produce a fair value to strengthen (to weaken) to run into selling pressure (buying interest) to grow in popularity to be reflected in the price to reflect shifts in Supply, and Demand to gauge changes in trend to be based on psychology to work in the past to lie in the past to estimate future direction to identify patterns to ride the rising trends to show signs of a reversal to discount everything to capture market sentiment to implement a trading plan to use technical approaches to be in agreement with
Ex. 2. Put questions to the underlined words in the text and let your partner answer them.
Ex. 3. Select the subordinate clauses and state of what kind they are (object clause, attributive clause
adverbial modifier clause of time, place, cause, etc.)
Ex. 4. Read and translate the text.
Ex. 5. Draw up a plan of the text and render it.
| MARKET STAGES
Traditionally markets move from Bull markets to Sideways
markets to Bear markets. They move from Bear to Sideways to
Bull. People however tend to forget the sideways market stage
and assume that markets move from Bear to Bull, to Bear. The
only markets that do in fact move from Bull to Bear are the
exceptions and not the rule — they are parabolic markets and are
usually characterised by thin trading volumes.
Traditionally speaking, the market stages can be sum
marized as follows:
Ø Markets accumulate — go sideways at the end of a down
trend
Ø Markets then trend up, trending up they have a correction
or a pause
Ø Markets then climax or peak
Ø Markets accumulate (distribution — sideways movement
at the top)
Markets trend down
|
|
| Vocabulary
|
| 0:
|
| accordingly - соответственно
|
|
|
|
|
| au
|
| to'counter — выдвигать контраргумент
|
|
|
|
|
| time frames — временные рамки
|
|
|
|
|
| i
|
| to anticipate — предвосхищать
|
|
|
|
|
| e
|
| exception - исключение
|
| о volume
| — объем
|
| to apply
| — применять, использовать
|
| (to be) due
| — ожидаемый, обусловленный
|
| ei
|
|
| A trader does not sell just because the market has been in an up trend for a long time and a change is due. Before you sell, you at least need to see a sideways move in the market. Technical Analysis is applied to markets because: 1. Markets have stages. 2. Within the stages, there are behavioural characteristics. 3. Within the behavioural characteristics, you have specific patterns. There exist three types of market trends: 1. Up Trend 2. Down Trend 3. No Trend—Congestion
| behavioural
i sophisticated
э 'option
| — поведенческий — сложный — опцион
|
Comprehension Questions
1. What market stages do you know?
2. What is the most important factor of a price chart?
3. What factors determine the importance and strength of the trend line?
4. How does the trend line act in bear and bull markets?
5. How can up and down trends be identified?
Trendlines
| The cornerstone of technical analysis theory is that prices discount all known information, and forecasts, and that these prices move in trends. Therefore, the most important factor to determine when looking at a price chart is the direction of the prevailing trend. Trends are evident in all degrees, from intra-day trends in 5-minute bar charts to trends of a few weeks on daily charts, to multi-year trends on weekly and monthly charts. Regardless of magnitude, an uptrend is defined as a series of prices with higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is most simply a series of lower highs and lower lows. sideways trends
also develop and occur when neither an uptrend nor downtrend is evident. In an uptrend, a trendline can be drawn bv connecting increasingly higher lows. while in a down trend a trendline is usually drawn from increasingly lower highs. The importance and strength of the trendline is determined by the length of time the line exists and the number of times that the trendline halts price movement. Thus. the longer the trendline has existed and the more prices bounce off the trendline, the stronger the trend. In a bull market, the trendline will tend to act as price support, in a bear market the trendline will tend to offer price resistance. Supply pressures
during a bull market will come into play at support levels. pushing prices up off support as supply diminishes. In a bear market supply will increase on upticks, keeping prices under pressure. Demand acts in the reverse order, increasing on price dips in a bull market, decreasing on price upticks in a bear market. Thus. some technicians (particularly those with an economic bent) will refer to a bull trendline as a supply line. Conversely, during a bear market, resistance will be found along the trendline pushing prices lower and lower. This trendline may be viewed as the demand line. indicating where demand will be insufficient to push prices to higher levels. The preferred method of looking at trends is to know the long term trend, multi-year, and then work to daily of intra-day trends.
Channels
Once a trendline is established, technicians attempt to identify a price channel which will contain prices. These are most commonly drawn as parallel lines from a significant high (in a downtrend) or a significant low (in an uptrend). Identifying a change in trend can be a simple matter using technical analysis. Any violation of the current trend confirms a change in trend. For instance, a series of consecutive lower lows and lower highs, following a mn-up in price, could indicate a change in the price trend from up to down. Early identification
of a change in trend may be signalled bv a price breakout
through the trendline and out of the price channel. Trendline and channel drawing is a subiective art, so there are several things to look for to validate the channel penetration.
| i technique
e to 'penetrate
ei to maintain
e consecutive
as 'magnitude
as 'valid
i to 'signify
| — метод
— проникать
— утверждать
— последовательный
— величина
— имеющий силу
— указывать
| |
| |
| |
|
| |
| |
| |
| First, it is important that the close penetrates the channel.
Penetrations of the high or the low are more often indications of
temporary overbought or oversold conditions in the market,
rather than a change in trend. Second, the extent of penetration
of the close is important. There is a general technical rule of
thumb, that 3% of current market price is the minimum amount
of penetration through the trendline required to validate the
breakout. This should be adjusted to market and trader
requirements though. Third, increased volume on the dav of
prenetration is considered the final confirmation of a legitimate
breakout.
|
| Moving Averages
|
| Moving averages are the most versatile and widely used of
all technical indicators. Basically, the averages are a smoothing, or trend following device with a time lag. It is important to note that the averages are a lagging indicator and should be used for confirmation of trend.
Moving averages are simply the averages of a set amount of closing price data. For example, if a 9-day average is desired, the closing prices for the last 9 days are added and the total is divided by 9. The most common way to calculate the moving average is to work from the total of the last 9 days' closing prices. Each day the new close is added to the total and the close 10 days back is subtracted. The new total is then divided by the number of days (9). Shorter moving averages e.g. 4-day are more sensitive and hug the price action more closely than the longer averages (30-day, 100-day).
One method used to generate trading signals is to look for
price action to cross over the moving average. Another way is to use a double crossover method. This means that a buy signal is produced when the shorter (9-day) average crosses above the longer (18-day) and a sell signal occurs when the 9-day crosses below the 18-dav moving average. Although this technique of using two averages together lags the market a bit more than the use of a single average, it will produce fewer whipsaws.
Moving averages lag price movements, but this is
acceptable as the average will smooth out "noisy" data. Moving averages can be constructed for any period of time one chooses, but the higher number of days averaged, the more sluggish the average becomes. Many commodity traders find that shorter averages, such as the 3-day, tends to be too volatile. They use instead, a combination of averages. A popular combination is the 4, 9 and 18-day averages. For a longer-term indicator, a 30-day average may also be used, along with 50-day averages or longer. As the moving averages are a lagging technical indicator,
they will almost never position one in the market at precisely the right time. Instead, they help to take profits from the middle of a trend and hold losses to a minimum.
| Vocabulary
|
| ae
|
| to validate — устанавливать
|
|
|
| to penetrate — проникать
|
|
|
| rule of thumb — здравый смысл, опыт
|
|
|
|
|
| 'moving' averages — скользящие средние
|
|
|
| э:
|
| 'versatile — многосторонний гибкий
|
|
|
| lag — отставание
|
|
|
| to hug — держаться, следовать
|
|
|
| э:
|
| to occur — случаться
|
|
|
| i
|
| 'whipsaw — мошенничество, двойная
|
| выгода
|
|
|
|
|
| л 'sluggish — медленный, инертный
|
|
|
| ei
|
| to weight — взвешивание компонентов
|
| степени значимости
|
|
|
| е
|
| exponential — экспонентный
|
Types of Moving Averages
Although technicians use moving averages as a trend following system, there are various methods used to calculate a moving average. The differences occur due to the weights each day's price is given.
A simple moving average gives each price equal weight, and the average is a simple summation of N number of days divided by N.
A weighted moving average gives each price a different weight relative to its position in time. The most common form of weighted average is to give the first price (most historical) a weight of 1, the second a weight of 2, the third a weight of3, etc. up to the number of days in the average. In this type of average the most recent price has the largest effect on the calculated value.
An exponentially smoothed moving average is calculated by taking the previously calculated value and adding a certain percent of the difference between today's price and the previous calculated value. This type of average gives greater weight to the most recent prices.
Studies have shown that there is no single "ideal type" of moving average or moving average period. Choosing a moving average and testing its profitability, via optimisation studies, continues to be the most popular method.
Exercises
Ex 1. Match the nouns in the left-hand column to the verbs in right-hand column and make up sentences.
| Noun
| Verb
|
| Pattern
| to determine
|
| reversal p.
| to identify
|
| continuation p.
| to move out of
|
| large p.
| to move into
|
| small p.
| to be (in) complete
|
| trend (line)
| to reverse
|
| upt.
| to end
|
| down t.
| to establish
|
| not.
| to be in tact
|
| sideways t.
| to be reversed
|
| prevailing t.
| to be in place
|
| intra-day t.
| to be evident
|
| multi-year t.
| to turn into
|
| strong t.
|
|
| weak t.
|
|
| full t.
|
|
| bear t.
|
|
| long-term t.
|
|
| short-term t.
|
|
| Price
| to push/fall
|
| open p.
| to move up (down)
|
| high
| to go
|
| low p.
| to trend up (down)
|
| close p.
| rally to
|
| watched p.
| to climax
|
| subsequent p.
| to peak
|
| lower p.
| go sideway
|
| higher p.
| to retrace 50%
|
| price target
| to shift from down trend to up trend
|
| | to gain control
|
| | to regain
|
| | to rise on strong volume
|
| | to bounce off the support line
|
| | to turn down
|
| | to climb back but fail
|
| | to close to...
|
| | to close below...
|
| | to settle below...
|
| Volume
| to increase
|
| lowv.
| to decrease
|
| high v.
| to fall
|
| strong v.
| to rise
|
| weak v.
| to decline
|
| declining v.
| |
Ex. 2 Translate the dialogue from English into Russian in writing and from Russian into English orally.
